How Seahawks’ remaining schedule compares to fellow contenders in push for playoffs

22 Dec 2023, 13:36 by Bob Condotta · The Seattle Times

Maybe in the moment players don’t have time to think about the ramifications of a win or a loss.

And sometimes players like to say they are so focused they don’t think about it at all.

But as the Seahawks lost four in a row to fall to 6-7, one thing they clung to is that all playoff hope had not yet been lost.

“People like to say we don’t look at all that,” said Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks. “We look at it, all right? We look at it to see where we’re at, and it gives you clarification. It’s like, ‘All right, things went bad but you still have a chance.’ It gives you something to keep fighting for.”

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The Seahawks did just that Monday night, using a last-minute rally to beat the Eagles 20-17.

And that win, coupled with a few fortunate bounces of the ball in games elsewhere last week — most notably, two losses in six days by the Packers in games in which they were favored and former UW star Jake Browning leading the Bengals to a comeback win over the Vikings — gave the Seahawks about as much help with their postseason chances as they could have reasonably hoped.

And the result was a Seattle team, which could have had playoff odds in the low teens when last weekend’s games ended, that now has a better-than-even chance of getting to the playoffs.

But every week is a new week.

And it’s one that’s already begun from Seattle’s standpoint, with two teams the Seahawks are competing with for playoff spots, the Rams and Saints, having played Thursday night.

In what was somewhat bad news for Seattle, the Rams won 30-22. Via the New York Times’ Upshot Playoff Calculator, that decreased Seattle’s playoff hopes from 53% to 49%. That’s because the Rams, who are now 8-7, have the tiebreaker on Seattle due to a head-to-head sweep.

And that means if the Rams win out, the Seahawks are logically consigned to the seventh spot in the NFC playoffs.

But winning out may not be so easy for the Rams.

With seven teams now making the playoffs in each conference, the top seed gets a bye and the other six play the first weekend. The four division winners host games as the top four seeds. The three teams with the next-best records make the playoffs as wild cards.

The Seahawks have already been eliminated from winning the NFC West and are competing solely for a wild-card spot.

Here is the current playoff picture in the NFC, following Thursday’s game:

1. San Francisco (11-3)
2. Dallas (10-4)
3. Detroit (10-4)
4. Tampa Bay (7-7)
5. Philadelphia (10-4)
6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
7. Minnesota (7-7)
8. Seahawks (7-7)
9. New Orleans (7-8)
10. Atlanta (6-8)
11. Green Bay (6-8)
12. Giants (5-9)
13. Chicago (5-9)

(Washington, Arizona and Carolina have been eliminated.)

Of note:

— Dallas has tiebreakers on Detroit due to better conference record and the Eagles due to division record.

— Tampa Bay currently holds the lead in the NFC South and would get the fourth seed and a home game whether anyone thinks that’s fair or not. But hey, just remember what kind of memory that gave the Seahawks in 2010.

— And the Vikings currently have the tiebreaker on Seattle due to a better conference record — 6-3 to Seattle’s 6-5 — which was why Minnesota’s loss last week was so big (and why the Seahawks will need to send Browning a thank-you card if they make it). But that, too, can change.

Let’s review now the remaining schedules for each of the teams Seattle is logically competing with.

Rams (8-7)

What’s next: Dec. 31, at Giants; Jan. 6-7 at 49ers.

Comment: LA is one of the hottest teams in the NFL having won five of six beginning with its comeback win over the Seahawks on Nov. 19. Which, yep, was a real killer for the Seahawks. LA’s only loss in that time was an overtime defeat at Baltimore. The Rams will be favored to beat the Giants, but then again with Tommy DeVito, anything is possible. Possibly complicating things is whether the 49ers will have anything to play for in that final game. SF has tiebreaker edges on Dallas and the Eagles and could have the No. 1 seed wrapped up by then (which, in fact, they could do it this weekend).

Vikings (7-7)

What’s next: Sunday, vs. Detroit; Dec. 31, vs. Green Bay; Jan. 6-7 at Detroit.

Comment: The two games left with the Lions means the Vikings are still sort of alive for the NFC North title. They have a 46% chance at that heading into the weekend. Those rise to 74% with a win Sunday and drop to 29% with a loss. And in what’s obviously good news for Seattle, the game against Green Bay is assured of handing a loss to either the Vikings or Packers.

Seahawks (7-7)

What’s next: Sunday, at Tennessee; Dec. 31, vs. Pittsburgh; Jan. 6-7, at Arizona.

Comment: That Seattle will likely be favored to win its last three games, and that many other contenders are assured of losses due to playing each other, is why the Seahawks’ odds fluctuated so greatly based on the win over the Eagles. Irrespective of other results, Seattle’s playoff odds increase to 60% Sunday with a win and decrease to 30% with a loss.

Buccaneers (7-7)

What’s next: Sunday, vs. Jacksonville; Dec. 31, vs. New Orleans; Jan. 6-7, at Carolina.

Comment: Wins in the next two games would basically clinch the NFC South for the Bucs and make them irrelevant from the Seahawks’ standpoint. Upshot currently has their odds at 83% to make the playoffs, 80% to win the division.

Saints (7-8)

What’s next: Dec. 31, at Tampa Bay; Jan. 6-7, vs. Atlanta.

Comment: The Seahawks have a solid conference-games edge on the Saints — 6-5 to New Orleans’ 4-6. The Saints also (obviously) lose out on tiebreakers to the Rams. That means New Orleans’ most realistic hope is to win out and hope that’s enough to take the NFC South (Tampa Bay currently has most tiebreaker edges on the Saints). The Saints have just a 15% chance to make the playoffs, via Upshot, and 3% as a wild card.

Falcons (6-8)

What’s next: Sunday, vs. Colts; Dec. 31, at Bears; Jan. 6-7, at Saints.

Comment: The Falcons are barely clinging to life with 11% playoff odds, and 3% for the wild card, via Upshot. A loss this weekend, regardless of other results, drops their odds to 4%.

Packers (6-8)

What’s next: Sunday, at Carolina; Dec. 31, at Minnesota; Jan. 6-7 vs. Chicago.

Comment: Wins over the Lions and Kansas City got Green Bay to 6-6 and 72% to make the playoffs. But in the “you just never know’’ department, the Packers then lost to the Giants and at home to Tampa Bay and now are at just 22%, via Upshot. A loss to Carolina drops those odds to 5%.