NASCAR at Talladega odds, predictions, start time: Model reveals surprising 2024 GEICO 500 picks, leaderboard

SportsLine racing model simulated the 2024 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway 10,000 times and revealed its projected NASCAR leaderboard

With cars often going three- and four-wide at nearly 200 mph, superspeedway races are among the most exciting on the NASCAR schedule. The first of two races at Talladega Superspeedway will take place on Sunday. The green flag drops on the 2024 GEICO 500 at 3 p.m. ET and Kyle Larson will try to overcome a superspeedway rut to maintain his lead in the NASCAR standings. Larson leads Martin Truex Jr. by 17 points through nine races, but he's only managed one top-five in 38 career starts at Daytona and Talladega.

Larson has led in four of the last five races at Talladega, but only has one top-15 finish during that span, yet he's still 18-1 in the 2024 GEICO 500 odds. Joey Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega and the 9-1 favorite in the 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds, followed by two of his Ford colleagues, Brad Keselowski at 10-1 and Ryan Blaney at 11-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 GEICO 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 GEICO 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.

Top 2024 GEICO 500 predictions

For the 2024 GEICO 500, the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and 63-time winner is 16th in the NASCAR standings and chasing a victory that would likely grant him a spot in the NASCAR playoffs for the 19th year in a row.

However, Busch ran well at Daytona, coming from 34th when the green flag dropped to lead 12 laps before finishing 12th. Now, he's coming off a ninth-place finish despite starting 35th and battling slick track conditions last week in Texas. Busch is also a two-time winner at Talladega, including a victory in the 2023 GEICO 500 in which he came from 17th and won despite leading only three laps.

Another massive shocker: Joey Logano, a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and the Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Talladega NASCAR starting lineup. The 33-year-old is starting to turn things around after a disastrous start to the season where he finished outside the top 20 in four of the first five races, finishing 11th or better in his last four starts.

However, he's still only 15th in the 2024 NASCAR standings and the three-time Talladega winner has had a very difficult time there in recent years. Logano has only finished inside the top 15 once in his last eight starts in Talladega and he's finished in a worse position then he's started in eight of nine races there. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Talladega picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds longer than 12-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the GEICO 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.

2024 GEICO 500 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine

Joey Logano 9-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Ross Chastain 18-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
Ty Gibbs 20-1
Chris Buescher 22-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
Tyler Reddick 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Michael McDowell 35-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Noah Gragson 40-1
Corey Lajoie 40-1
Todd Gilliland 45-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Zane Smith 70-1
Justin Haley 70-1
Josh Berry 75-1
John Hunter Nemechek 75-1
Carson Hocevar 75-1
Shane Van Gisbergen 100-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Anthony Alfredo 250-1
Cody Ware 500-1
BJ McLeod 500-1