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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 1 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

26 Aug 2024, 15:11 · CBS Sports

Some stats you can take with a grain of salt, while others can play a role on who you back with your Week 1 NFL picks. There's a stat involving Fantasy football rookie quarterbacks that could affect players like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and others as they prepare to make their debuts in the Week 1 NFL schedule. First-round QBs are 0-10 in their first career starts over the past three seasons. Williams' Bears are favored by 4.5-points over the Titans in the Week 1 NFL odds, while Daniels and the Commanders are 3.5-point underdogs to the Buccaneers in the NFL lines.

C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love are just some of the first-round quarterbacks who have lost their starting debuts in recent years, so should you fade the Bears and the Commanders with Week 1 NFL bets? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 outright in his NFL coaching career in Week 1 games, and his QB in Justin Herbert has dominated the Raiders throughout his career. Herbert has 18 total touchdowns versus just two turnovers in seven games against the Raiders. He's now boosted by a power run game with L.A. adding J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards from the Ravens, after the Chargers never finished better than 18th in rushing throughout Herbert's career.

On defense, Khalil Mack terrorized his former team last year, notching a career-high of six sacks when the squads met in Los Angeles. He managed that without having Joey Bosa lined up on the other side, but the four-time Pro Bowler is back healthy. Raiders QB Gardner Minshew faced the Chargers twice in his career before landing in Las Vegas, and Minshew lost both by double-digits. The SportsLine model has the Chargers (-3.5) covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Arizona overhauled its coaching staff last season but still had the same results, particularly on defense. The Cardinals have ranked 31st in scoring defense in each of the past two seasons, and a lack of a pass rush is a big reason why. Arizona had the third-fewest sacks in 2023, in addition to having the fifth-fewest takeaways.

If you can't bring down Josh Allen or force him into turning the ball over, then your chances to win or even compete are slim. The model projects Arizona's defense to struggle in both regards, as Allen is projected to have less than one turnover and get sacked fewer than two times. Facing little deterrence, Buffalo is expected to score a touchdown more than it averaged last year (26.5 points), as the Bills (-6.5) cover in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.