2024 BMW Championship odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 13 majors

SportsLine's proven model simulated the BMW Championship 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks

Scottie Scheffler is on his way to capping off an amazing season, but first he needs a solid showing at the 2024 BMW Championship, which tees off Thursday at 9:25 a.m. ET. The world No. 1 returned to PGA action last week after bringing home the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics, but came up just a bit short as he finished solo fourth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He hasn't played at Castle Pines since 2006, however ranking fourth on the PGA Tour in total driving (91) should give him a boost in the thin mountain air at the BMW Championship 2024.

Scheffler is the +330 favorite this week on the PGA odds board, followed by Xander Schauffele (+550), Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Collin Morikawa (+1400). Before locking in your 2024 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now with the 2024 BMW Championship field locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 BMW Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 BMW Championship: McIlroy (12-1), a 26-time winner on the PGA Tour and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. McIlroy has been wildly inconsistent after securing a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open in June. He finished T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open but missed the cut at the British Open and is coming off a T-68 showing at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. 

McIlroy has struggled with accuracy off the tee this season, ranking 83rd in driving accuracy (60.94%). He's also been inaccurate with his irons, ranking 105th in greens in regulation percentage (65.66%). He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2024 BMW Championship field. See who else to fade here. 

Another surprise: Tommy Fleetwood, a 30-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. The Olympic silver medalist ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in total driving (107) which gives him a leg up on the competition when it comes to the high altitude in Denver. Castle Pines has also been likened to Augusta National, where Fleetwood finished T3 at the 2024 Masters.

The Englishman, who has three top-10 finishes this season, has also had his fair share of success in previous BMW Championship runs. He has finished in the top-25 in all three of his previous starts at the tournament, including an eighth-place finish in 2018. His current form plus his previous runs in this event make it clear why the model is high on Fleetwood to finish strong at the 2024 BMW Championship. See who else to back here. 

How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the BMW Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors this year.

2024 BMW Championship odds, top contenders 

Get full 2024 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. 

Scottie Scheffler +330
Xander Schauffele +550
Rory McIlroy +1200
Collin Morikawa +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Åberg +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Tony Finau +3000
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Wyndham Clark +3000
Sam Burns +3500
Billy Horschel +4000
Aaron Rai +4000
Corey Conners +4000
Justin Thomas +5000
Cameron Young +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Sungjae Im +4500
Adam Scott +5500
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Jason Day +6000
Akshay Bhatia +6500
Byeong Hun An +6000
Shane Lowry +6000
Matt Fitzpatrick +7000
Davis Thompson +6500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7500
Will Zalatoris +7500
Brian Harman +8000
Nick Dunlap +7500
Keegan Bradley +8000
Max Greyserman +9000
Taylor Pendrith +8000
Alex Noren +9000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Eric Cole +11000
Si Woo Kim +11000
Max Homa +11000
Thomas Detry +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Cam Davis +12000
Tom Hoge +11000
Austin Eckroat +12000
J.T. Poston +15000
Stephan Jaeger +17000
Adam Hadwin +17000
Chris Kirk +20000
Matthieu Pavon +22000