2024 Tour Championship odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 13 majors

SportsLine's proven model simulated the Tour Championship 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks

The FedEx Cup champion will be crowned this weekend at the conclusion of the 2024 Tour Championship. Only the top 30 players in the 2024 FedEx Cup points list get invitations to this event, which will be held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Past champions include Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay, and they're all in the Tour Championship 2024 field. However, the favorite is still searching for his first FedEx Cup championship in World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

With the staggered format scoring, Scheffler -- who tops the FedEx Cup standings -- will begin at 10-under-par. That's a big reason why he's the +100 favorite (risk $100 to win $100), while Xander Schauffele (8-under-par) is at +220. Hideki Matsuyama (7-under-par) won the first FedEx Cup playoff tournament and is at +1200 in the 2024 Tour Championship odds. Before locking in your 2024 Tour Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now with the 2024 Tour Championship field locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Tour Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 Tour Championship: McIlroy (+1800), a 26-time winner on the PGA Tour and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. McIlroy had quite the late-spring/early-summer run over a span of seven tournaments. He had back-to-back victories, as well as five top 5s over that stretch, but it's been a struggle on the PGA Tour since then. He missed the cut at The Open, finished 68th out of 70 golfers at the St. Jude Championship, and then placed 11th a week ago at the BMW. Eleventh place was also his finish at last year's Tour Championship, based on his 72-hole score.

McIlroy is starting the 2024 Tour Championship 4-under-par, so he has a sizable six strokes to overcome to catch Scheffler. That's quite a large gap considering that McIlroy ranks just 67th on tour in total birdies. He's had numerous birdie opportunities slip through his fingers due to his putter, as the Irishman is just 65th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. Considering his recent slide, strokes to overcome and struggles on the greens, McIlroy is one to fade with 2024 Tour Championship bets. See who else to fade here. 

Another surprise: Sam Burns, a +3500 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. The LSU product has only gotten better and better over the last two months, culminating in a runner-up last week at the BMW Championship. He's improved his finish in each of his last four tournaments, and there's only one spot to improve to after a second-place finish. Over Burns' last eight events, he has six top-15 finishes, including at the U.S. Open and each of the first two FedEx Cup Playoff events.

Based solely on his 72-hole score, Burns was in fourth place at last year's Tour Championship, finishing ninth overall with starting strokes applied. He will start at 4-under-par on Thursday, so just five golfers will be ahead of him on the leaderboard. Burns has shot multiple strokes under par in five of his last six rounds at East Lake Golf Club, so he's shown the ability to make up ground quickly and shouldn't be overlooked this weekend. See who else to back here. 

How to make 2024 Tour Championship picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2024 Tour Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Tour Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors this year.

2024 Tour Championship starting scores, odds to win 

Get full 2024 Tour Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. 

Scottie Scheffler (-10) +100
Xander Schauffele (-8) +220
Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1200
Keegan Bradley (-6) +3000
Ludvig Åberg (-5) +1800
Rory McIlroy (-4) +1800
Collin Morikawa (-4) +3500
Wyndham Clark (-4) +4000
Sam Burns (-4) +3500
Patrick Cantlay (-4) +4500
Sungjae Im (-3) +10000
Sahith Theegala (-3) +22500
Shane Lowry (-3) +15000
Adam Scott (-3) +10000
Tony Finau (-3) +10000
Byeong Hun An (-2) +35000
Viktor Hovland (-2) +7000
Russell Henley (-2) +12500
Akshay Bhatia (-2) +30000
Robert MacIntyre (-2) +40000
Billy Horschel (-1) +27500
Tommy Fleetwood (-1) +10000
Sepp Straka (-1) +40000
Matthieu Pavon (-1) +150000
Taylor Pendrith (-1) +40000
Chris Kirk (E) +150000
Tom Hoge (E) +100000
Aaron Rai (E) +50000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (E) +100000
Justin Thomas (E) +30000