Mavericks vs. Suns prediction, odds, spread, time: 2023 NBA Christmas Day picks, best bets from proven model

SportsLine's model just revealed its NBA picks for Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks on Christmas Day

Teams looking to turn around their recent fortunes meet on Christmas Day when the Dallas Mavericks battle the Phoenix Suns in a key Western Conference matchup. The Mavericks (17-12), who have lost four of six, are coming off a 144-119 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. The Suns (14-14), who have lost eight of 11, dropped a 120-105 decision at Sacramento on Friday. Dallas is 9-6 on the road this season, while Phoenix is 7-8 on its home court.

Tip-off from the Footprint Center in Phoenix is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. Phoenix leads the all-time regular-season series 96-76, including 11 of the past 13 meetings. The Suns are 5-point favorites in the latest Mavericks vs. Suns odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 235. Before making any Suns vs. Mavericks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Suns and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Suns vs. Mavericks:

• Mavericks vs. Suns spread: Phoenix -5
• Mavericks vs. Suns over/under: 235 points
• Mavericks vs. Suns money line: Dallas +161, Phoenix -193
• DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games
• PHO: The Suns have hit the game total over in 25 of their last 36 home games (+14.00 units)
• Mavericks vs. Suns picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Suns can cover

Power forward Kevin Durant has been dominant this season and has scored 27 or more points in each of the last five games. In a 109-104 loss at Portland on Tuesday, Durant poured in 40 points, while dishing out five assists and grabbing four rebounds. He scored 28 points and grabbed seven boards in Friday's loss at Sacramento. For the year, Durant is averaging 30.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.1 blocks in 36.6 minutes of action.

Shooting guard Devin Booker has been a consistent contributor, reaching double-digit scoring in all nine games he has played in December. He has registered seven double-doubles on the year, including a 34-point and 12-assist effort in a 116-112 loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Dec. 13. He scored 21 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in a 106-103 loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles on Dec. 5. For the season, he is averaging 27.7 points, 8.2 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 35.8 minutes of action in 19 games, all starts. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Point guard Luka Doncic is coming off a triple-double in Saturday's win over the Spurs. In 32 minutes of action, he poured in 39 points, while grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists. He has a franchise-best 62 triple-doubles in his career and has 20 games this season with 30 or more points. He is averaging 32.7 points, 9.1 assists, 8.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 37 minutes of play.

Small forward Tim Hardaway Jr. also had a monster game against the Spurs, scoring 23 points, while grabbing six rebounds and registering three assists. It was the third time in the past five games that he scored 20 or more points. His best game so far this year was a 32-point performance in a 127-125 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Dec. 12. Going into Monday's game, Hardaway was averaging 17.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists. See which team to pick here.

How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 238 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.