Analysis: Malaysia PM Anwar set to benefit from Najib’s partial pardon, but don’t expect status quo for UMNO

The reduction of former Malaysia PM Najib Razak’s prison sentence from 12 to six years is a middle ground outcome that appeases the largest factions in Malaysia’s unity government, say analysts.

SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR: A partial pardon for the jailed former Malaysia prime minister Najib Razak represents a win-win situation for current premier Anwar Ibrahim, political observers said, noting that it satisfies influential camps in the unity government that hold strong opposing views on whether Najib should remain behind bars or be freed.

The Pardons Board, which is headed by Malaysia’s king, said in a statement on Feb 2 that Najib's 12-year sentence for corruption charges linked to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal will be halved to six years.

This means that Najib, now 70, will be released on Aug 23, 2028, the statement said.

His RM210 million (US$44.5 million) fine will also be reduced to RM50 million, the Board said. If this is not paid, one year will be added to Najib's sentence and he will be released on Aug 23, 2029, it added.

CNA was the first to break the news on Jan 31, citing sources including senior government officials, that Najib would have his jail term halved and fine reduced under a partial royal pardon.

But the Board's statement did not mention the potential of parole for Najib, which could slash off a third of his new prison term and ensure he gets out in August 2026, well in time for Malaysia’s next general election due by February 2028.

Malaysia’s parliament has to be dissolved by December 2027, five years after the last general election in 2022. The next election must then be held within 60 days of parliament’s dissolution.

The decision on Najib’s pardon came after the board met on Jan 29 to discuss his application, in what was one of Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin’s last official tasks before he handed the role to Johor ruler Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar.

The days that followed brought feverish speculation about the case, with some news outlets publishing then retracting source-based stories that Najib had been granted a full pardon. Authorities had urged to wait for an official statement.

Analysts told CNA a partial pardon is a middleground outcome that would appease the largest coalitions in Mr Anwar’s unity government, namely his own Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition as well as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party that leads the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.

Najib is still believed to wield huge influence in the once-powerful UMNO, the Malay-based party he had led and whose current president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is deputy prime minister in Mr Anwar’s Cabinet.

UMNO has previously pushed for a full pardon for Najib, and analysts have cautioned that such an outcome could risk disrupting its partnership with PH at a time when Mr Anwar is pushing his anti-graft agenda amid what he calls systemic corruption among the country’s elite.

BREATHING SPACE

Dr Ong Kian Ming, director of the philosophy politics and economics programme at Taylor's University in Malaysia, said the reduction in Najib’s sentence - as opposed to initial speculation of a full pardon - gives “some breathing space” for PH parties.

PH supporters and leaders would have felt “very uncomfortable” having to explain to the public why a government it is part of issued a full pardon to Najib, he said.

This is especially as many of PH’s leaders “campaigned vociferously” on the 1MDB issue leading up to the 2018 General Election, which saw the fall of BN after a six-decade reign over the country, he said.

“Even if some of the PH supporters are not happy with the reduction in sentence, it is far more acceptable than a pardon,” he added.

“For UMNO, this would show that the unity government has helped out Najib slightly even if it was not a full pardon. That would assuage the feelings of many hardcore supporters of Najib within UMNO.”

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan called it a “win-win situation” for Mr Anwar, suggesting that the premier had probably put in “good words” for Najib.

According to senior government sources, Mr Anwar had attended a Pardons Board meeting last December - which decided to defer considering the Najib petition - only because the Federal Territories portfolio was vacant at the time and operating directly under the Prime Minister’s Office.

Dr Azmi said there had been grumblings within UMNO that its leader Mr Ahmad Zahid was not doing enough to pursue a pardon for Najib. Any internal unrest that threatens Mr Ahmad Zahid - a prime broker of the partnership with PH - could lead to instability in the unity government.

“Zahid is a big supporter of Anwar. BN’s 30 MPs supported Anwar because of Zahid,” Dr Azmi noted.

If BN chose to leave en bloc, the government - which currently holds 147 out of 222 seats, including six from the opposition who recently pledged support for Mr Anwar - will be left with a dangerously slim parliamentary majority.

“It's good for Anwar and the unity government as Najib supporters in UMNO will be happy, and Pakatan Harapan supporters who say Najib should be incarcerated will also be happy that Najib will be incarcerated for (a few more) years,” Dr Azmi said.

Professor James Chin at the University of Tasmania said any blowback on Mr Anwar will be “limited”, as people will eventually acknowledge that this is the king’s final decision.

“I think there will be a very strong social media backlash among the urban people, but it will die down very quickly especially among the Malay groups, because they will say that this is the Malay king’s prerogative,” he told CNA.

“And in Malaysia, if you go against the Malay king, it is seen as sedition.”

Prof Chin believes the decision by the Pardons Board will have no impact on Malaysia’s monarchy either, pointing out that previous kings have faced bigger scandals before.

He cited a case in September 2019, when Sultan Muhammad V’s former wife and Russian beauty queen Oksana Voevodina posted on social media allegations about the Kelantan ruler being the father of her children, prompting a rebuke from the royal household.

Sultan Muhammad V had abdicated the throne in January that year before his term was supposed to end in 2021. While no official reason was given, it came amid intense speculation about his private life following reports that he had married a Russian. He remains the only Malaysian king to have abdicated.

Dr Azmi said Najib’s partial pardon would not affect new king Sultan Ibrahim as it was the previous king Sultan Abdullah who made the decision at the end of his rule.

“So, it’s got nothing to do with the new monarch, and I think the new monarch will not change anything,” he added.

According to Dr Ong, strong public reaction on social media to the possibility of Najib being freed means the new king will have to carefully consider any future decision to pardon him.

“Najib's chances of receiving a full pardon are very, very low under the new king,” he said.

“In addition, the new king has publicly said that he will ‘go after’ those who are corrupt, meaning a pardon for Najib will not be on the horizon anytime soon.”

POTENTIAL BOOST FOR UMNO

With Najib possibly being released before the next general election, Dr Ong believes he will try to return to power within UMNO and rebuild the party into a position of greater strength in preparation for the national polls.

“He will then negotiate with PH from a position of strength rather than of weakness, which is the case now,” Dr Ong said.

But this would first require Najib to replace Mr Ahmad Zahid as UMNO’s leader, and Dr Ong said the question of whether Mr Anwar will discuss an exit plan for the latter before the next general election is still “very much in play”.

“Najib is the only UMNO leader that can put enough pressure on Zahid in the UMNO supreme council to force an early party election,” he added.

Dr Azmi feels that Najib’s return to UMNO will create a “positive vibe” for the party, especially after Malay voters had flocked to the opposition Perikatan Nasional coalition in the previous election following a loss of confidence in UMNO’s ability to represent the Malay ground.

“It will be good for the unity government because UMNO will be in a stronger position to attract the Malay voters,” he said, although he felt it would still be difficult for UMNO to regain its previous strength among Malay voters and go solo.

But Prof Chin believes the “most logical” move for Najib would be to push for two of his sons who are already in politics to run for more prominent positions in the next general election.

Najib’s eldest son Nizar, 46, is a state assemblyman for Peramu Jaya in Pahang’s Pekan constituency, which is considered Najib’s family seat. Najib’s other son Nazifuddin, 40, is chief of UMNO’s Langkawi division.

“I don't think Najib is going to cause trouble immediately after he comes out. The reason is that he also needs some time to survey his political support,” Prof Chin added.

“Don't forget we're talking about events that will happen in two or three years’ time. The scenario could change, so I don't think we should place too much emphasis on Najib making a comeback.”

NAJIB’S OTHER CHARGES LIKELY TO PROCEED

Significant factors in these permutations include whether Najib will be granted parole for good behaviour, and whether his previous conviction allows him to run in the 16th General Election due by 2028.

It is also worth noting that Najib is still facing other 1MDB-related charges, and it remains unclear how the partial pardon will affect this.

Dr Azmi feels the partial pardon will put prosecutors in an “awkward position”, but not to the extent of stopping them from proceeding on current or future charges against Najib.

Lawyer Joshua Wu, a partner at Messrs. P.E. LIM, said Najib’s partial pardon will likely not have any effect on his ongoing criminal cases.

“Najib's only conviction, at the moment, is the one by the High Court in 2020 and later affirmed by the Federal Court in 2022. He is technically innocent until proven guilty, in relation to his ongoing criminal cases,” he told CNA.

The prosecution has until September this year to proceed with trial on outstanding money laundering charges against Najib, after which Najib’s lawyers can apply for an acquittal or a discharge not amounting to an acquittal.

For the charges, Najib faces up to five years’ jail, a maximum fine of RM5 million, or both if convicted.

On the topic of parole, lawyer Salim Bashir, a former president of the Malaysian Bar, said all prisoners with a minimum jail term of one year or more and have served at least half of their imprisonment term may apply to be released on parole. 

“Parole is when prisoners are allowed to be conditionally released and can continue their remaining period of sentencing outside prison walls and on the pledge of good conduct,” he told CNA.

However, the parole eligibility does not apply to those convicted for offences under the fourth schedule of the Prison Act, like waging war against the king, causing death or rape.

Mr Salim said that depending on the parole board, it is possible for someone serving a six-year jail sentence to be out on parole after three years.

"In normal occurrences, only those who have been convicted for less violent crimes are considered for parole. However it's a discretion bestowed to the parole board to determine the outcome of parole applications," he added.

CAN NAJIB CONTEST GE16?

Another question is if ex-Pekan MP Najib will be able to stand in the next election, given his previous conviction.

If Najib gets out on parole in 2026 due to good behaviour, he will still be disqualified from membership of parliament for five years from the date he is released, Mr Wu said. 

"The exception is where the king removes the disqualification for that person," he said, noting that this would then allow Najib to contest the election.

Checks of a legal database did not show any reported cases where the five years’ disqualification was removed, Mr Wu said.

“As far as I know, there is no prescribed procedure for the removal of the disqualification,” he said.

“However, logically, the convict would probably have to write to the king to request that the king exercise his power under Article 48(3) of the Federal Constitution to remove the disqualification.”

According to the law, a Malaysian is disqualified from contesting in elections if they have been convicted of a criminal offence and sentenced to more than one year’s imprisonment or a fine of more than RM2,000, with the ban lasting five years.

If, on the other hand, Najib was granted a full pardon - similar to the one Mr Anwar received in 2018 for sexual misconduct offences - he would be able to run in the election without any time bar.

“A full pardon means Najib's conviction ‘vanishes’ - he is treated as if he never committed an offence - and he can contest in the election,” Mr Wu added.