MICHAEL HOWARD: Talk of replacing Rishi ahead of the poll is madness

It is one thing to lose an election on the strength of your Opposition. It is another to lose it because of your own weakness and disunity.

And so, when the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to the House of Commons this week, it is vital that the Conservative Party unites around Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and votes for it.

There is no doubt that the public — on both sides of the political debate — wants the Government to act on immigration. And the truth is that no one has been able to put forward a viable alternative to the Rwanda plan.

It might not be perfect but I believe it can work as an effective deterrent to anyone thinking of entering this country illegally.

Not only will it significantly reduce the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats, it will also go a long way towards breaking the abhorrent business model of the people-smuggling gangs.

But despite Rishi Sunak’s 54-seat working majority, the legislation’s safe passage is anything but secure.

As the Bill enters the Committee stage this week, MPs now have the opportunity to tailor it to their liking by tabling amendments.

They are, of course, entitled to do so and the PM has said that he will listen to their concerns. But, when it comes to the third reading, the Bill must be supported.

I believe that, in its current form, the Rwanda Bill does strike a solid and fair balance between the desires of the competing Tory factions. And, therefore, it is now up to Conservative MPs to do their duty and unite behind it, proving — once and for all — that, in times of crisis, they are capable of presenting a united front.

Of course, we all have our own opinions and the Tory party has always been a proudly broad church.

But political parties are, by their very nature, coalitions. The minority views of small groups must not be allowed to derail the direction of the party as a whole — especially when it is in Government.

While I appreciate that the Rwanda scheme might not be without its weaknesses, the Tories must not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. And not only is the Rwanda Bill good, it is also the best option we have for getting a grip on illegal immigration.

Any Tory MP thinking about rebelling would do well to read the latest polling from YouGov, published in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph. It paints a desperate picture for the party.

The survey of over 14,000 people — seven times as large as a typical poll — predicts an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour, the restoration of the ‘red wall’ in the North and the prospect of a decade in the political wilderness for the Conservatives.

What’s more, major Cabinet figures, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, are all predicted to lose their seats in what would amount to the greatest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.

Labour are expected to sweep into office with a 120-seat majority, with the Tories on track to win 196 fewer seats than the party did under Boris Johnson in 2019.

That’s an even greater downturn than John Major, suffered in 1997— an election that heralded 13 years of Labour government.

But I urge the party not to lose faith. Because, back then, the political landscape was very different from today.

Ahead of the 1997 general election, we were facing a young, fresh and charismatic Labour leader in Tony Blair. The same cannot be said of his counterpart today, Sir Keir Starmer.

There are real weaknesses in Labour’s approach. Not least that so many of the Shadow Cabinet, including Starmer himself, stood shoulder to shoulder with his hard-Left predecessor Jeremy Corbyn and campaigned to put him in No 10.

And then there’s Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner. It has gone largely unnoticed that her ‘workers’ rights package’ appears to be straight out of the Corbyn playbook. It promises to make it easier for unions to call strikes, and much harder for businesses looking to hire new employees.

Some sectors could be forced to set a higher minimum level of pay than the minimum wage, and — with agreements covering pay, pensions, working time, holidays, health and safety and training — this will cripple many smaller companies and have a disastrous effect on the economy.

It completely undermines Labour’s claims to promote economic growth.

At the same time, in Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have a serious, conscientious and intelligent leader. He has already shown strong leadership on the world stage, most recently with decisive military action against the Houthis in Yemen and with his ongoing support for Ukraine.

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Moreover, he has truly got a grip on the economy. As the year draws on, inflation will continue to fall, mortgage rates will come down and I believe we will be able to say with confidence that the British economy is firing once again.

Talk of replacing Rishi ahead of the general election is absolute madness. The sooner his own MPs rally behind him, the better. Because, despite what some commentators on the Left would have you believe, the upcoming general election is far from a foregone conclusion.

In 1992, after 13 years in power, the Conservative Party I was a part of went into the general election against the backdrop of the worst recession in half a century and rampant inflation running at over 10 per cent.

The polls predicted, at best, a hung parliament and possibly a return to government for Labour.

But, as is often the case, the pollsters were wrong and John Major led us to a fourth consecutive electoral victory.

We had two great advantages at the time: party unity and a set of traditional Conservative policies.

If the current batch of Tory MPs unite around their leader, then there is no reason why we cannot repeat the feat of 1992.

And the pathway to electoral success begins this week with supporting the Rwanda Bill.

As they file through the voting lobbies in the Commons, Conservative MPs have a glorious opportunity to put their differences aside for the good of their party and the good of the country — and, who knows, they might just save their jobs, too.

Michael Howard, Baron Howard of Lympne, was Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from November 2003 to December 2005.