‘Joker’ Sequel Falls Far Short of Original at the Box Office

The bleak musical drama is on track to open to around $40 million, significantly less than what the 2019 version made on its first weekend.

The original “Joker,” in 2019, earned 11 Oscar nominations, $1 billion in global box office receipts and created a cultural phenomenon. So it was inevitable that Warner Bros. would make a sequel, with the same director, Todd Phillips, and star, Joaquin Phoenix.

More of a surprise is that the new film was dismissed by its audience this weekend. Titled “Joker: Folie à Deux,” and featuring Lady Gaga as Mr. Phoenix’s love interest/partner-in-crime, the bleak R-rated musical drama is on track to open to around $40 million, significantly less than what the 2019 version made on its first weekend. The studio will now struggle to earn back its production budget of around $200 million, plus its hefty marketing costs.

Reviews have been dismal. The New York Times called it “a dour, unpleasant slog,” and audiences awarded it a D score in exit polls, according to tracker CinemaScore. The musical element — an idea that apparently came to Mr. Phoenix in a dream — offered audiences a fresh idea and, to many critics, it served as the proper way to further explore a deranged main character with a warped imagination. But in this case, it alienated the typical fanboy audience who would be expected to have been frothing for a follow-up to the nihilistic film that won Mr. Phoenix his Best Actor Oscar.

The opening draw is a far cry from the $96 million “Joker” generated in its first weekend five years ago, almost to the day. That film cost $55 million to make. This one is contained primarily to two locations: Arkham Asylum, which houses Arthur Fleck, a.k.a. The Joker, after his murderous spree killed six people, and the courthouse, where he’s being tried for his crimes. So it shouldn’t have cost as much. But everyone was paid handsomely for their efforts, under the new production heads at Warner Bros., Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy. (Trade reports indicate that Mr. Phoenix received $20 million to reprise his role of Arthur Fleck/Joker while Lady Gaga earned $12 million to return to the bleak world of Mr. Phillips’s creation.)

“Lady Gaga in a musical was an unconventional choice,” David A. Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter on box office numbers, said in an email. “‘Joker’ was a well-made character study about a dark, sad figure. That story had limited potential to grow, and ‘Folie à Deux’ is not overcoming it.”

With overall box office receipts down 12 percent compared with last year at this time, Hollywood was looking for a big hit to kick off October and help the studios stoke momentum through the rest of the year. Now it looks as if it will have to rely on “Venom: The Last Dance” and the Thanksgiving movies: “Wicked,” “Gladiator 2” and “Moana 2” to recover.

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