NZD/USD drops to near 0.6000 after the release of the softer Kiwi data

• NZD/USD has depreciated as the softer Inflation Expectations (Q2) fueled speculation that the RBNZ may lower rates in 2024.
• The Kiwi Business NZ PSI fell to 47.1 in April, its lowest level since January 2022.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari refrained from completely dismissing another rate hike.

NZD/USD continues to lose ground for the second session, trading around 0.6000 during the Asian session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) depreciated following the release of the 2-year RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ) for the second quarter, which fell to 2.33% from the previous quarter's 2.50%. This decline has fueled speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might consider lowering rates later in 2024.

Moreover, the Kiwi Dollar faced pressure as Monday’s Business NZ PSI, a key indicator measuring business activity in New Zealand's services sector, dropped to 47.1 in April, its lowest level since January 2022. Although, on Friday, the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose to 48.9 in April from March's 46.8, it remained below February's reading of 49.1.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, continues to strengthen as traders analyze Friday's crucial economic data from the United States (US) and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding potential interest rate adjustments. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields may impede the Greenback's upward momentum.

On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, dropped to 67.4 in May from April's 77.2, marking a six-month low and falling short of market expectations of 76 reading. Meanwhile, the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation rose to 3.1%, a six-month high, up from 3.0% prior.

As reported by Reuters, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed), voiced concerns regarding the degree of tightness in monetary policy. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Kashkari acknowledged that although the bar for another rate hike is set high, it cannot be completely dismissed.

Furthermore, investors are poised to closely monitor key US economic indicators that could significantly influence the market this week. Notable highlights include the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, followed by reports on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales on Wednesday.

NZD/USD

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