Unsure situation in Maharashtra; no party is ready to show who its Chief Minister candidate is

By Mahesh Vijapurkar

The two fronts in Maharashtra–the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the ruling Mahayuti–are focusing on denying each other the political space, than on projecting a chief ministerial face. Both are unwilling to even say who would lead the victorious formation. Each partner on either side wants to treat their ally as an equal, at least for now.

This does throw up the risk of the post-poll scene unveiling unseemly negotiations of who was the boss, who should get how much of the pie, and the basis on which these are to be settled among them now. But that, for once, can wait because the trickier business of winning the elections is the priority.

Till the final tally is announced after the polls, which are likely to be held in November, all partners on either side of the fence want to be seen as equals. Either side sees the foe as formidable enough not to be diverted and upset the apple cart even before the seat sharing is sealed and delivered to the electorate. The MVA is more vocal about it than the rival formation.

The ruling three-party front finds it delicate to even broach the subject because both Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis would be two former chief ministers and would have equal claims. But speaking out about the leadership post-elections is considered inappropriate now. On the opposition side, Sharad Pawar is a leader but not a candidate, Uddhav Thackeray is.

Uddhav Thackeray did initially push the issue asking the MVA to discuss and project a face, but the issue, without public discussion, was quietly buried by asking him to lead the campaign. It was vital, but old hands who continue to show allegiance to the late Bal Thackeray, need to be out on the streets and match the BJP-RSS pannah pramukhs.

Both Aditya Thackeray and Sanjay Raut of Uddhav-led Shiv Sena have gone on record saying that the prime purpose was to dislodge the government first. So did Sharad Pawar earlier, indicating the same priority, not wanting to stir up the wrong pot at the most inappropriate time. The Maratha strongman is focused on getting others to crossover to the opposition side.

Pawar must hurry as seats assigned would depend on the winnability and wants to have his line-up ready. He is a shrewd negotiator and had made the Congress sweat in 1999 before sealing a pact for a post-poll alliance. He is the one who looks at the power-shares rather than on numbers alone. That time, he let go of the CM’s post to Vilasrao Deshmukh, but took powerful portfolios in return.

The Mahayuti is in a sort of fix because it must first legitimise the splits and get a people’s mandate in favour of the present line-up. The official stamp of approval from the Election Commission and the courts is one thing, but the people’s consent at the hustings is another. Ajit Pawar, who could snatch only one Lok Sabha seat and failed to transfer votes significantly to partners, is not pressing for a CM’s face now.

The ruling alliance is a tad uncomfortable because the BJP has determined internally that it should aim at 100 seats for riding on the vote shares of its partners, rather than be as ambitious as it initially was. Its initial reckoning was 140 of the 288 in the Assembly. It is moderating its hopes now and thinks Narendra Modi would pull it through to be the biggest party among the three.

Eknath Shinde, the incumbent Chief Minister, knows he is a chief minister with the strings held taut by the BJP’s Amit Shah, not Fadnavis, and is keen to avoid a clash for leadership far too soon. That would stir up more muck close to the likely November polling. They are now busy fashioning freebies with the hope of beating the model code of conduct that could come up.