Celtic tumble to a one in 10 transfer hit rate as Brendan Rodgers sees old adage bite amid Champions League strife

Celtic can't buy straight off-the-peg performers like Europe's elite so how can they bridge the gap?

Celtic chiefs face a straightforward choice. It’s either buy bigger or buy better.

Brendan Rodgers was not making pointed statements or issuing ultimatums when making it crystal clear the squad needs more quality to produce in the Champions League. He was simply outlining what everyone knows. Compared to the elite, we know Celtic cannot buy straight off the peg performers. But the question for the club now, as it always seems to be, is do they gamble on upping the stakes in terms of transfer fees and salaries for more experience and proven ability.

Or is it to stick with the model of buying younger ones with potential at more-moderate rates. One thing is clear from this campaign and that’s the latter only has a chance of helping at that level if you get planning and delivery spot on.

Which evidence tells you hasn’t been the case over the past year or so. That evidence notes recruitment has to be drastically improved. In the model, timing can be nearly as important as the scouting. Celtic’s plan was not to be out of Europe before the advent calendars are opened. And, while some things can’t be prevented, some can. Celtic’s competitive adventure ended on Tuesday night, but Rome’s not where the issues started.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that, in order to have any chance of getting results at that level, Celtic are going to always need virtually their best team on the park. To that end, injuries to the likes of Cameron Carter-Vickers, Reo Hatate and Liel Abada at various stages of the campaign have been damaging.

But there’s also the basic fact that Celtic were not as well prepared as they should have been for the start of this campaign. The blame for that lies at their own door. Under Ange Postecoglou when the club returned to the group stages last term, most pieces were long in place. The squad was gelled as they went into the deep end for their opener against Real Madrid.

That was not the case this time around for match one against Feyenoord and don’t be fooled into thinking that had nothing to do with the Aussie. Postecoglou did superbly to identify the likes of Abada, Kyogo Furuhashi and Hatate and won a watch with the way they settled straight into things as soon as they signed for the club.

Matt O’Riley was just the same and it’s unfair to expect every single signing to make such a sparkling impact.

For that reason alone, there simply has to be enough of a time period afforded to bed boys in properly. The market works in mysterious ways, but early summer signings such as Odin Thiago Holm, Kwon and Marco Tillo, for various reasons, have not made any proper contribution.

Luis Palma’s first start for the club came in Rotterdam on night one and that is surely not the way ahead. Jota left the club at the start of July and the replacement for the Portuguese really had to be there long before the last week of the window. Same goes for Paulo Bernardo, who was pitched into choppy Champions League waters while barely having kicked a ball in the Premiership. Postecoglou gets plenty of praise for his initial market moves, but the last remnants of his business left Rodgers light.

Ange started with Kyogo and Co. But then onto the likes of Oliver Abildgaard and Alexandro Bernabei and subsequently to boys such as Yuki Kobayashi and Tomoki Iwata. None of them or other arrivals showed enough to be of real assistance in Group E. Palma was suspended for Lazio, but apart from him, of those who have arrived in the past year, only Alistair Johnston is really a first pick. That’s a lot of players in the door who are not on the park.

And that’s the huge recruitment issue that, if sticking with the current model, needs to be improved. In the market where Celtic currently shop, you have to get the Hatates for your £2 million and not, with the greatest of respect to the guy, the Kwons. They are out there and Celtic have to find them.

Improvements in January are needed. First and foremost, Celtic need to just to ensure the league title is secured to book more Champions League action in the first place. But, if they want results against the elite, they have to be thinking about next autumn now.

They have to be eyeing Europe next season when they are making their moves on January 1. Rodgers is a hugely intelligent man. He knows he can’t spend £15 million on a player. The club hierarchy are also hugely intelligent men and also know that type of outlay on an individual is too much.

But is there somewhere in the middle? That’s the decision. Whatever route taken, Celtic need to get proper bang for your buck. They have to get it right both with their scouting and their timing. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail is one of the oldest adages in the book, but it’s true and played a large part in where Celtic went wrong in this term’s competition. The work in the past two windows led to this scenario. Yes, Celtic could do nothing to stop key men suffering injuries and missing big matches. But there’s no doubt they should have been better placed to absorb the blows when they first arose.

And that’s the area that needs the most attention going forward. Whichever path they choose to tread in the upcoming transfer windows.

Celtic signings over past three windows in full

SUMMER 2022

Benjamin Siegrist - Dundee United, undisclosed

Alexandro Bernabei - Lanus, £3.25m

Aaron Mooy - Shanghai Port, free

Moritz Jenz - Lorient, loan

Sead Haksabanovic - Rubin Kazan, undisclosed

Oliver Abildgaard - Rubin Kazan, undisclosed

* Cameron Carter-Vickers, Daizen Maeda and Jota all signed permanent deals in Summer 2022 after joining on loan the previous season.

JANUARY 2023

Yuki Kobayashi - Vissel Kobe, undisclosed

Alistair Johnston - CF Montreal, £3.5m

Tomoki Iwata - Yokahama F Marinos, loan

Hyeon-Gyu Oh - Suwon Bluewings, £2.5m


SUMMER 2023

Gustaf Lagerbielke - IF Elfsborg, £3m

Odin Thiago Holm - Valerenga, £2.5m

Marco Tilio - Melbourne City, £2m

Hyun-Jun Yang - Gangwon, £2m

Hyeokkyu Kwon - Busan I-Park, £1m

Maik Nawrocki - Legia Warsaw, £4.3m

Tomoki Iwata - Yokohama F. Marinos, undisclosed

Luis Palma - Aris FC, £3.5m

Nat Phillips - Liverpool, loan

Paulo Bernardo - Benfica, loan

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