What more women voters mean for the Rajasthan Assembly polls

Female voter turnout in Rajasthan has surged from 41.1 per cent in 1962 to 74.7 per cent in 2023, a testament to women's steady and relentless march towards electoral empowerment. 

While the dust still settles after the 16th Assembly elections in Rajasthan, a striking trend has emerged from the latest numbers released by the Election Commission: an all-time high voter turnout, trailing only behind the watershed moment in 1967. And this raises the age-old question again. Does increased voter turnout, particularly with the surge in female participation, signify a tide turning against incumbents?

India Today's Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) delved into Rajasthan's past 14 Assembly elections. The findings are a tapestry of oscillations with equal instances (seven each) of rising and falling voter turnouts. Notably, incumbents returned to power once in 1985 during the seven elections with higher turnouts. In contrast, in the seven instances of lower voter turnouts, ruling parties secured re-election just three times, primarily before the 1980s.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The latest figures carve out a new narrative in Rajasthan's electoral history: the gender divide in voter turnout is rapidly closing. In several constituencies, the margin between male and female turnout is now less than one per cent, marking a radical departure from a past where male turnout significantly eclipsed female participation. This trend points towards potentially reshaping future electoral strategies and policies.

DEEP DIVE

Historically, Rajasthan's voter turnout was low before the 1980 Assembly elections, with Congress predominantly at the helm. The post-1980 era witnessed a reversal of this trend, with a consistent rise in voter engagement, punctuated only by slight declines in 2008 and 2018. The total voter turnout, which once peaked at 87.9 per cent in 1967, experienced a slump until 1980. However, it has since been on the upswing, reaching 74.6 per cent in the latest elections.

IN NUMBERS

The gender gap in turnout has seen a dramatic closure over time. From a striking difference of 21.6 percentage points in 1962, it has narrowed to a negligible 0.2 percentage points in 2023. Female voter turnout has surged from 41.1 per cent in 1962 to 74.7 per cent in 2023, a testament to women's steady and relentless march towards electoral empowerment.

This trend is accentuated by the jump from 65.3 per cent in 2008 to 75.4 per cent in 2013, reflecting a broader societal shift towards gender parity in the political sphere. Male voter turnout, while peaking in 1967 at 88.1 per cent, has since shown a downward trend with minor fluctuations, settling at a comparable 74.5 per cent to female turnout in 2023.

WHY WOMEN'S VOTES ARE CRUCIAL?

In the 2023 Assembly elections, women voters didn't just turn up; they turned the tide. Female voter participation was not only substantial but, in many constituencies, it eclipsed that of men, signalling a key shift in Rajasthan's electoral landscape.

The average female voter turnout was a robust 74.7 per cent, edging out the male turnout of 74.5 per cent. In 86 of the 199 constituencies, women's turnout surpassed men's, accounting for approximately 44 per cent of the total constituencies. Such figures not only raise questions about traditional political calculations but also herald the arrival of women as a formidable electoral force.

LARGEST FEMALE ADVANTAGE

Fatehpur showcased a female turnout that outstripped male participation by 10.6 percentage points. Similarly, in Mandawa, the gap was nearly ten percentage points. Other constituencies like Sagwara, Lachhmangarh, and Bhim followed suit, with gaps favouring female turnout by over nine percentage points.

LARGEST MALE ADVANTAGE

On the contrary, in constituencies like Dag and Phalodi, men's turnout overshadowed women's by margins of 7.2 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively.

Since 2003, the voter turnout has consistently surpassed 60 per cent, with women's participation increasing more rapidly than men's, suggesting a burgeoning political consciousness among the women of Rajasthan.

BOTTOM LINE

While the rise in female voter turnout is a positive sign, it doesn't eclipse the persistent challenges. In certain rural pockets, entrenched norms and gender roles continue to impede women's full participation in voting. Overcoming these barriers is essential to enhancing women's engagement and ensuring that the democratic process is inclusive for all.

This comprehensive analysis of voter behaviour in Rajasthan reveals a nuanced tapestry of electoral engagement, where increased turnout and the rising tide of female participation reshape the political landscape in subtle yet significant ways.

Published By:
Sahil Sinha
Published On:
Nov 27, 2023